Impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on food prices: Evidence from storable and perishable commodities in India.

The supply chain disruptions caused by the COVID-19 outbreak have led to changes in food prices globally. The impact of COVID-19 on the price of essential and perishable food items in developing and emerging economies has been lacking. Using a recent phone survey by the World Bank, this study examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the prices of the three essential food items in India. The results indicate that price of basic food items such as atta (wheat flour) and rice increased significantly during the pandemic compared to the pre-pandemic period. In contrast, during the same period, the price of onions declined significantly. The findings may suggest panic-buying, hoarding, and storability of food items. The results further reveal that remittance income and cash transfers from the government negatively affected commodity prices. Thus, this study's findings suggest that families may have shifted the demand away from essential foods during the pandemic.

Altering product placement to create a healthier layout in supermarkets: Outcomes on store sales, customer purchasing, and diet in a prospective matched controlled cluster study.

BACKGROUND: Previous product placement trials in supermarkets are limited in scope and outcome data collected. This study assessed the effects on store-level sales, household-level purchasing, and dietary behaviours of a healthier supermarket layout. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This is a prospective matched controlled cluster trial with 2 intervention components: (i) new fresh fruit and vegetable sections near store entrances (replacing smaller displays at the back) and frozen vegetables repositioned to the entrance aisle, plus (ii) the removal of confectionery from checkouts and aisle ends opposite. In this pilot study, the intervention was implemented for 6 months in 3 discount supermarkets in England. Three control stores were matched on store sales and customer profiles and neighbourhood deprivation. Women customers aged 18 to 45 years, with loyalty cards, were assigned to the intervention (n = 62) or control group (n = 88) of their primary store. The trial registration number is NCT03518151. Interrupted time series analysis showed that increases in store-level sales of fruits and vegetables were greater in intervention stores than predicted at 3 (1.71 standard deviations (SDs) (95% CI 0.45, 2.96), P = 0.01) and 6 months follow-up (2.42 SDs (0.22, 4.62), P = 0.03), equivalent to approximately 6,170 and approximately 9,820 extra portions per store, per week, respectively. The proportion of purchasing fruits and vegetables per week rose among intervention participants at 3 and 6 months compared to control participants (0.2% versus -3.0%, P = 0.22; 1.7% versus -3.5%, P = 0.05, respectively). Store sales of confectionery were lower in intervention stores than predicted at 3 (-1.05 SDs (-1.98, -0.12), P = 0.03) and 6 months (-1.37 SDs (-2.95, 0.22), P = 0.09), equivalent to approximately 1,359 and approximately 1,575 fewer portions per store, per week, respectively; no differences were observed for confectionery purchasing. Changes in dietary variables were predominantly in the expected direction for health benefit. Intervention implementation was not within control of the research team, and stores could not be randomised. It is a pilot study, and, therefore, not powered to detect an effect. CONCLUSIONS: Healthier supermarket layouts can improve the nutrition profile of store sales and likely improve household purchasing and dietary quality. Placing fruits and vegetables near store entrances should be considered alongside policies to limit prominent placement of unhealthy foods. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03518151 (pre-results).

Effects of Labelling and Increasing the Proportion of Lower-Energy Density Products on Online Food Shopping: A Randomised Control Trial in High- and Low-Socioeconomic Position Participants.

Reducing the energy density (ED) of product selections made during online supermarket food shopping has potential to decrease energy intake. Yet it is unclear which types of intervention are likely to be most effective and equitable. We recruited 899 UK adults of lower and higher socioeconomic position (SEP) who completed a shopping task in an online experimental supermarket. Participants were randomised in a 2 × 2 between-subjects design to test the effects of two interventions on the ED of shopping basket selections: labelling lower-ED products as healthier choices and increasing the relative availability of lower-ED products within a range (referred to as proportion). Labelling of lower-ED products resulted in a small but significant decrease (-4.2 kcal/100 g, 95% CIs -7.8 to -0.6) in the ED of the shopping basket. Increasing the proportion of lower-ED products significantly decreased the ED of the shopping basket (-17 kcal/100 g, 95% CIs -21 to -14). There was no evidence that the effect of either intervention was moderated by SEP. Thus, both types of intervention decreased the ED of foods selected in an online experimental supermarket. There was no evidence that the effectiveness of either intervention differed in people of lower vs. higher SEP.

Chronic diseases: An added burden to income and expenses of chronically-ill people in Sri Lanka.

In the global context, health and the quality of life of people are adversely affected by either one or more types of chronic diseases. This paper investigates the differences in the level of income and expenditure between chronically-ill people and non-chronic population. Data were gathered from a national level survey conducted namely, the Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) by the Department of Census and Statistics (DCS) of Sri Lanka. These data were statistically analysed with one-way and two-way ANOVA, to identify the factors that cause the differences among different groups. For the first time, this study makes an attempt using survey data, to examine the differences in the level of income and expenditure among chronically-ill people in Sri Lanka. Accordingly, the study discovered that married females who do not engage in any type of economic activity (being unemployed due to the disability associated with the respective chronic illness), in the age category of 40-65, having an educational level of tertiary education or below and living in the urban sector have a higher likelihood of suffering from chronic diseases. If workforce population is compelled to lose jobs, it can lead to income insecurity and impair their quality of lives. Under above findings, it is reasonable to assume that most health care expenses are out of pocket. Furthermore, the study infers that chronic illnesses have a statistically proven significant differences towards the income and expenditure level. This has caused due to the interaction of demographic and socio-economic characteristics associated with chronic illnesses. Considering private-public sector partnerships that enable affordable access to health care services for all as well as implementation of commercial insurance and community-based mutual services that help ease burden to the public, are vital when formulating effective policies and strategies related to the healthcare sector. Sri Lanka is making strong efforts to support its healthcare sector and public, which was affected by the coronavirus (COVID-19) in early 2020. Therefore, findings of this paper will be useful to gain insights on the differences of chronic illnesses towards the income and expenditure of chronically-ill patients in Sri Lanka.

Estimating the potential effects of COVID-19 pandemic on food commodity prices and nutrition security in Nepal.

The objective of the paper is to analyse changes in food commodity prices and estimate the potential effects of food price change on nutrition security in Nepal in the context of COVID-19 contagion control measures. It presents a comparative intra-country observational study design looking at events before and during the pandemic (after implementation of contagion control measures). The study design includes three districts, enabling comparison between diverse agro-ecological zones and geographical contexts. The methodology consists of primary data collection, modelling and quantitative analysis. The analysis is based on actual school meal food baskets which represent culturally and nutritionally optimised food baskets, developed by the local community and notional typical household food baskets. End May/early June 2020 is the 'Post-COVID-19' reference point, the same time period in 2019 i.e. June 2019 is the 'Pre-COVID-19' reference point. The study finds a substantial increase in food commodity prices across food groups and districts with marked inter-district variation. For school meal basket, all micronutrients show large average declines ranging from 9⋅5 % for zinc to 11 % for vitamin-A. For household food baskets on average, vitamin-A reduced 37 % followed by iron at 19 %, reduction in zinc is low due to the high zinc content in whole grain cereals. COVID-19 control measures are likely to have contributed to substantial price inflation over the reference period with potentially damaging effects on nutrition security in Nepal with serious implications for vulnerable populations.

Using a rapid assessment methodology to identify and address immediate needs among low-income households with children during COVID-19.

OBJECTIVE: Brighter Bites is a school-based health promotion program that delivers fresh produce and nutrition education to low-income children and families. Due to COVID-19-related school closures, states were under "shelter in place" orders, and Brighter Bites administered a rapid assessment survey to identify social needs among their families. The purpose of this study is to demonstrate the methodology used to identify those with greatest social needs during this time ("high risk"), and to describe the response of Brighter Bites to these "high risk" families. METHODS: The rapid assessment survey was collected in April 2020 across Houston, Dallas, Washington DC, and Southwest Florida. The survey consisted of items on disruption of employment status, financial hardship, food insecurity, perceived health status and sociodemographics. The open-ended question "Please share your greatest concern at this time, or any other thoughts you would like to share with us." was asked at the end of each survey to triage "high risk" families. Responses were then used to articulate a response to meet the needs of these high risk families. RESULTS: A total of 1048 families completed the COVID-19 rapid response survey, of which 71 families were triaged and classified as "high risk" (6.8% of survey respondents). During this time, 100% of the "high risk" participants reported being food insecure, 85% were concerned about their financial stability, 82% concerned about the availability of food, and 65% concerned about the affordability of food. A qualitative analysis of the high-risk group revealed four major themes: fear of contracting COVID19, disruption of employment status, financial hardship, and exacerbated food insecurity. In response, Brighter Bites pivoted, created, and deployed a framework to immediately address a variety of social needs among those in the "high risk" category. Administering a rapid response survey to identify the immediate needs of their families can help social service providers tailor their services to meet the needs of the most vulnerable.

To buy or not buy food online: The impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on the adoption of e-commerce in China.

Drawing on a recent online survey combined with city-level data, this paper examines the impact of the COVID-19 on consumers' online food purchase behavior in the short term. To address the potential endogeneity issues, we adopt an instrumental variable (IV) strategy, using the distance from the surveyed city to Wuhan as the instrumental variable. We show that our IV method is effective in minimizing potential bias. It is found that the share of confirmed COVID-19 cases increases the possibility of consumers purchasing food online. This is more likely to be the case for young people having a lower perceived risk of online purchases and living in large cities. Despite some limitations, this paper has policy implications for China and other countries that have been influenced by the COVID-19 epidemic. Specifically, government support and regulation should focus on (i) ensuring the safety of food sold on the internet, (ii) protecting the carrier from becoming infected, and (iii) providing financial support to the poor since they may have difficulties in obtaining access to food living in small cities. Moreover, how to help those who are unable to purchase food online because of their technical skills (e.g., the elderly who are not familiar with smart phones or the internet) also deserves more attention for the government and the public.

Impacts of COVID-19 on Trade and Economic Aspects of Food Security: Evidence from 45 Developing Countries.

The stability of food supply chains is crucial to the food security of people around the world. Since the beginning of 2020, this stability has been undergoing one of the most vigorous pressure tests ever due to the COVID-19 outbreak. From a mere health issue, the pandemic has turned into an economic threat to food security globally in the forms of lockdowns, economic decline, food trade restrictions, and rising food inflation. It is safe to assume that the novel health crisis has badly struck the least developed and developing economies, where people are particularly vulnerable to hunger and malnutrition. However, due to the recency of the COVID-19 problem, the impacts of macroeconomic fluctuations on food insecurity have remained scantily explored. In this study, the authors attempted to bridge this gap by revealing interactions between the food security status of people and the dynamics of COVID-19 cases, food trade, food inflation, and currency volatilities. The study was performed in the cases of 45 developing economies distributed to three groups by the level of income. The consecutive application of the autoregressive distributed lag method, Yamamoto's causality test, and variance decomposition analysis allowed the authors to find the food insecurity effects of COVID-19 to be more perceptible in upper-middle-income economies than in the least developed countries. In the latter, food security risks attributed to the emergence of the health crisis were mainly related to economic access to adequate food supply (food inflation), whereas in higher-income developing economies, availability-sided food security risks (food trade restrictions and currency depreciation) were more prevalent. The approach presented in this paper contributes to the establishment of a methodology framework that may equip decision-makers with up-to-date estimations of health crisis effects on economic parameters of food availability and access to staples in food-insecure communities.